- Buy Volatility Shares’ SVIX inverse volatility ETF. You definitely still want to exit if the market volatility starts climbing, but you have more time to react. In the post Timing Inverse Volatility with a Simple Ratio, I provide a straightforward method to time your SVIX entries/exits. It doesn’t work all the time but it will keep you out of big trouble like the February 5th, 2018 meltdown. SVIX attempts to match 100% of the opposite percentage moves of VXX. Since VXX only manages about 45% of the VIX’s percentage moves you should expect SVXY to have about a 45% move relative to the VIX. For more on SVIX see this post.
The current set of securities that attempt to track volatility include:
- Volatility futures contracts (CBOE VIX Futures)
- Options on volatility contracts (CBOE’s VIX options)
- VXX & VXZ ETNs (rolling blends of futures contracts that trade like stocks) with their ProShares competitors VIXY & VIXM See this post for a complete list. See How to short VXX for specifics on shorting VXX.
- Options on VXX, VXZ, UVIX, SVIX, UVXY, SVXY, VIXY,
- Inverse funds that attempt to go up when volatility goes down
- Volatility Shares’s SVIX ETF (goal– daily 1X short term inverse returns)
- ProShares’ SVXY ETF (goal—daily 0.5X short term inverse returns). More info here.
All of these choices can be at least theoretically used to bet that the VIX index will go down. Futures contracts or VXX can be shorted, VIX or VXX puts can be bought, or calls shorted.
All of these choices have significant problems.
- None of them track the VIX index particularly well, they tend to lag the index considerably
- VXX can be hard to short (Schwab has had it in their “Hard to Borrow” category for a long time) and you can’t short stocks / ETFs/ETNs in an IRA account. Fortunately, SVIX is available,
- Long VIX / VXX put options have serious time decay issues—if the VIX doesn’t drop when you expect your positions bleed money.
- Because volatility products are relatively volatile the premiums on options tend to be expensive.
- Unhedged short positions leave you exposed to losses larger than your initial investment if you forecast incorrectly. Your losses if the index spikes won’t be unlimited because nothing goes up infinitely, but it could be enough to really hurt. Even the lethargic VXX managed rallies of around 2X in 2010, 2011 and 2018.
On the positive side of betting that the VIX index will go down, the VIX index and all of its proxies show mean reversion. After it spikes up, fear always subsides, and any surviving short position would reduce its losses over time and potentially turn profitable—assuming you didn’t get in when the VIX index was really low.
Better yet, short positions on VXX or similar products will also profit from the contango associated with the volatility futures these products are based on.
If you decide you want to go short on the VIX index, I think it makes sense to limit your potential losses if volatility spikes, either with stop-loss orders or with VIX or VXX OTM calls that would really kick in to limit your losses. Stop-loss orders are scary because if the market is gapping you might lose quite a bit more than your stop-loss order would suggest. For example, if you are short VXX at 40 and your stop loss is set at 42, your order might fill at 44 if the market gaps down significantly at opening. The type of stop-loss order that becomes a limit order rather than a market order when triggered prevents this scenario but opens you up to an even worse loss if volatility continues to spike and never trades at your limit price.
Even though it is scary, I think a stop-loss order would probably work well. At least looking back over the last couple of years, including the flash crash, the market was orderly enough to prevent large losses if reasonable stop-loss orders had been in place.
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19 thoughts on “Going short on VIX?”
Any caveats on why we shouldn’t be shorting the VIX in these times using the instruments outlined in this post?
Shorting now might work out great if we have a “V” style recovery. More likely we will have a 2nd and perhaps even a 3rd volatility spike before things start to settle down. See this link for a comparison to the 2008/2009 market. https://twitter.com/6_Figure_Invest/status/1243193836404224003
The only fatal flaw in these products is the “poison pill” redemption clause. We are witnessing pricing driven only by that, unrelated to NAV.
One more thing. I plan on trading these options very short term max 3 days. Either day trade or ovenight mostly
Hi , I am new to these forum and I am not quite what are the rules. So please excuse me if I am asking a question in the wrong forum.
I am looking to trade options based on the VIX and I am etting confused to which are the best ones. I keep an eye on the VIX all day long but I have read that the correct options are the ones on the VXX.
Today the VIX has dropped massively. From what I can gather a
VIX 4/26/17 P12 is trading at 0.40 On Friday it traded at 0.05
VXX 4/28/17 P15.5 is trading at 035 On Friday it traded at .08
So they are pretty similar. But I have not idea which are the really liquid ones with the tighter spread . Also being used to looking at the VIX, I can relate to its price movement whereas the VXX is a bit esoteric for me.
Thank you for your help.
Can you please tell me if the following post is true or not.
look at a 10 year plot of ZIV: https://www.google.com/fina… , what happened in 2011. it lost 87% of value in a few days.
over very long term a time will come when the VIX spike will send you out of business. been there, done that. the data for SVXY is not available, but I’d expect it to have done the same.
It is a response to my post below about going long on SVXY. I have been in SVXY since August and plan to hold it for 5 to 10 years. I can handle the huge swings as long as I am confident that it will always rebound. However if the above post is true and it doesn’t rebound then I will have to exit and look for something else.
Thank You for your expert opinion,
The June 27, 2011 event was a 8:1 stock split (forward, not reverse split). I think VelocityShares was trying to get the price down to a more tradeable range. I’ve attached ZIV’s performance (using VIX futures data before ZIV’s inception) to show its 13 year history. https://www.sixfigureinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/ziv-2004.jpg
Best Regards, Vance
I think that chart is wrong from my research they had an 8-1 stock split so if you held you would be up over 300% but I could be wrong as I am new to investing.
Hi Vance and Marcin
Thank you Marcin for your post. Vance is there anyway to see what would happen to SVXY if the market repeats 2011. I’ve owned it since August and now am thinking I should exit. ZIV has never recovered after 10 years would the same thing happen to SVXY or would it have recovered by now.
Thank You both for your expert advice.
If your account is provisioned for futures you can short the VIX using the /VX futures. They display the same drag characteristics as the ETF/ETNs but to a lesser extent. It also bears mentioning that they are leveraged at $1,000 to each VIX point.
Hi Ragnar, Shorting VX futures is different from a short of the VIX. The only time the futures value is likely to match the VIX is at expiration.
Thanks for al your information on uvxy I’m definitely staying away. I’m looking for a long term investment 10+ and have read that svxy shouldn’t beheld as long position but I they don’t say why. I cant find any reason that I wouldn’t hold it for a long period. Also between ziv and uvxy which one do you like better for a long term investment and why?
Thanks for all you do
I don’t understand this statement:
All of these choices have significant problems.
Long VIX / VXX options have serious time decay issues—if the VIX doesn’t drop when you expect your positions bleed money.
Why would you be long these if you want to short VIX and why would you be concerned if the VIX drops? That’s what you are hoping to have happen if you are short.
CVOL is long vol, not short
You are correct. The language in my post was ambiguous, I have changed it. Thanks!
When you say “reasonable stop loss order”, what do you define as reasonable? Just wondering because I have been trading XIV and found that a 3% SL has been what works best for my trading.
3% is a very reasonable
You absolutely CAN short stocks in an IRA. I do it all the time at TD Ameritrade.
Not many brokers allow this anymore, TD may have been grandfathered in.