Will the 2004 redux model predict the bottom—SPY at 105?

In February I created a 2010 trendline based on the behavior of the market in 2004, using the market bottom in early February 2010 as the anchor.  Looking at the chart below, the 2010 trendline predicts a bottom of this correction will be SPY at 105.  We’ll see.

Of course people are concerned about a double dip in the market, but the macro-market factors are considerably different than late 2008.  The Eurozone troubles are the most negative factor right now, but we don’t seem to have any bursting bubbles in the USA–with the possible exception of the price of gold.  I’ve been really surprised that gold has dropped recently, it seems that it would be attractive as a flight to safety.  Instead US treasuries seem to be the preferred flight destination and any talk of the Euro as the world’s reserve currency would be considered delusional.

SPY 2004 vs 2010,  click to enlarge
SPY 2004 vs 2010, click to enlarge

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