SPY forecast | Six Figure Investing

Six years and a point apart

September 21, 2010September 21, 2010 by

The surprising day-to-day correlation between SPY in 2004 and SPY in 2010 continues. The 21-September closing values were 112.96 (2004), and 113.98 (2010)—not exactly a rousing endorsement of buy-and-hold strategies. This year’s SPY has traded below the old SPY line since mid August, but it just crossed over, challenging the top 2004 trendline (see below). It appears that the scary months of September and …

Will the 2004 redux model predict the bottom—SPY at 105?

May 21, 2010 by

In February I created a 2010 trendline based on the behavior of the market in 2004, using the market bottom in early February 2010 as the anchor. Looking at the chart below, the 2010 trendline predicts a bottom of this correction will be SPY at 105. We’ll see. Of course people are concerned about a double dip in the market, but the macro-market factors are …