In the classical formulation of the two-envelope paradox, you are presented with two envelopes containing money and allowed to choose one to keep. After you pick one of the envelopes, but before you open it, you’re told that one of the envelopes contains twice as much money as the other, and if you wish, you can now switch envelopes. What should you do? Intuitively, this …
Current Status and Recent Moves Introduction In 2013, I wrote The Modified Ned Davis Method, an article posted on Six Figure Investing, which described a greater than 50-year out-of-sample test using primarily the Russell 2000 index. The test continued until recently, posting trade updates on Six Figure Investing and X within a few days after each trade was made. Even though results were computed only …
I recently posted a paper, “Transforming Stock Market Forecasts with Variable Expected Returns,” on the SSRN online repository. This paper resolves an issue that has been bugging me for years. The link is: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=495384 This paper is not about making money, but rather about a fundamental theoretical error regarding stock market forecasts that has been present for many years. The flawed methodology generates overoptimistic multi-period …
On June 4th, 2024, Volatility Shares introduced ETHU, an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) offering 2X leverage on the daily percentage moves of the ether cryptocurrency. This post will review ETHU’s architecture, operational characteristics, likely risks, possible rewards, and potential trading strategies. A simulation of ETHU back to 2017 provides some insight on how this Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) might perform in the future. Before we …
On June 27th,2023 Volatility Shares introduced BITX, the first 2X leveraged Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund. This post will review BITX’s architecture, operational characteristics, likely risks, possible rewards, and potential trading strategies. A simulation of BITX back to 2014 provides some data on how this Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) might perform in the future. Before we get into the specifics of how BITX works, I’m disclosing …
