It’s been about 7 months since my article on The Modified Davis Method first appeared, so it’s time for an update. Here is the original chart updated through 3/28/14. As before, the top (white) line is the method’s results; the yellow line is the Value Line/Russell 2000 series; the green line is the S&P 500 for reference. The method is still 100% long after the last …
VXX hasn’t hit a new low in 6 weeks, and it’s not because the market is crashing. What has changed is the shape of the VIX futures term structure—the underlying futures that the various volatility Exchange Traded Products (ETP) like VXX, XIV, TVIX, and ZIV are based on (see volatility tickers for the entire list). For most of 2009 through 2012 the monthly roll cost …
We don’t have good metaphors to help us understand the short-selling of equities. It’s easy to understand a straight “long” investment. For example, planting a garden is a reasonable analogy—it involves buying seeds, planting them, and in due time there is a payoff—or not. But in real life people rarely borrow something, immediately sell it, and hope to buy it back at a cheaper price. …
