The prices of SPY (S&P 500) starting in March of 2003 and of 2009 have tracked each other surprisingly well over a 6 year period. The current market has managed higher highs each year, but then that advantage has evaporated by the Christmas holidays.
This year the market has already achieved the higher highs part of the pattern—and for the first time since this recovery begain the VIX levels between the two bull markets have become comparable. If 2013 follows the 2007 pattern we will see a significant up-tick in volatility later this year—with the VIX reaching at least the low 30s. In 2007 the market went into its sideways pattern around May 18th.