Although recent intra-day lows have crossed the 2010 trendline in the graph below I hallucinated in February we haven’t had a SPY closing yet that has crossed that line (104.87 for 9-June-2010). My crystal ball has been notably hazy recently, but I’m still thinking this is a correction and not the beginning of a bear market.
I continue to be bearish on the prospects for Europe’s monetary union—I think they inadvertently created a gold standard of sorts (the Euro with Germany as the center of mass). Economists generally frown on such things because the only response left in tough times if you can’t devalue the currency and/or renege on national debt is to put draconian economic measures in place (e.g., benefit cuts, decreases in government spending)–at a time when many of the countries are already in severe recessions. Unless Germany agrees to an inflationary strategy, or the European Common Market agrees to a much more centralized government (neither of which seem likely) I predict more drama for the Euro.