Looking a the chart below you can imagine this year’s stock market getting back on the 2009 trend line, leaving the 2003/2004 correlation behind. But I’m still betting that the market is in a sideways mode, rather than a continuing raging bull.
The most notable change in the curves since my last update on the 18th of March is the big drop in normalized volume–something we didn’t have till the Summer of 2004. Volumes have been low recently, so this drop-off isn’t surprising. If the 2004 pattern holds true, the 30 day moving average of volume will drop during rising prices, and start increasing a couple weeks before rallies occur.