Are we reliving 2004? Daily level correlation with SPY…

Last November I posted regarding the interesting correlation (at the day of the month level) between SPY prices in 2003 and 2009. I updated that analysis with the last 44 days of data and things still line up surprisingly well.   Six years later to the day, the SPY closing values are just slightly over  a percent from  each other (112.93 vs 114.19).  The normalized …

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2004 Redux?

The 12 year chart below shows some interesting correlations between the beginnings of the 2003–20007 bull market and now. In fact the months and SPY values lines up almost exactly. The 2003 bull started in March, and in January 2004 was trading at the 113/114 level (vertical black line) that we are at now. Not that history has to repeat itself, but I think the …

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Trading in IRA accounts, and avoiding “free riding”

As much as possible I try to trade in my IRA accounts—in order to defer taxes of course. It is a bit counter-intuitive to be doing more speculative activities in a retirement account, but this approach supports my goals:

  • Achieving good returns
  • With reasonable risks
  • While compounding growth

If your money is in Roth accounts, all the better, but most people interested in trading in their IRAs are restricted to traditional IRAs.

There are restrictions on what trades you can do in an IRA account.  For example, you can’t short a stock in an IRA account, but option restrictions have eased some over the years,  and market innovations like short ETFs (e.g., SH, SDS) have effectively bypassed some of the more onerous restrictions.   Brokers vary considerably in what they allow in IRA accounts, so pays to ask around.   Fidelity & Schwab allow many types of option spreads that some brokers might not. Covered calls and protective puts on long positions are broadly available within IRAs. Interactive Brokers and TD Ameritrade both waive the 2-day settlement requirement on trades in IRAs so if you plan to do frequent trades they would definitely be worth a look.

For a more general treatment on trading in IRAs see “Top 15 Questions About Trading in IRAs.”  The rest of this post will deal with free riding and how to avoid it.

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Projections for 2010

As much as I wish there was a system that we could turn the crank and make lots of money on the markets, I think the market is too good for that to work.  We are reduced to educated guesswork.  Some guesses: The S&P 500 will move from its astonishing trendline to a slightly down trending sideways market for 6 months before it starts moving …

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2023 Ex-div & Paydates Schwab: SCHA, SCHB, SCHC, SCHD, SCHE, SCHF, SCHG, SCHH, SCHM, SCHV, SCHX, FNDF, FNDC, FNDE, SCHK, FINDB, FNDX, FDNA

2023 Schwab ETF Ex-Dividend and Pay date information Schwab has now published their ex-dividend / pay dates for all of their no-fee ETFs.  The published dates are: Quarterly Distributions:  SCHA, SCHB, SCHD, SCHG, SCHH, SCHM, SCHV, SCHX, FINDB, FNDX, FDNA 2023 Ex-Dividend Dates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 22-March 21-June 20-September 6-December 28-December  (potential cap gains div) Pay / Distribution Dates 27-March 26-June 25-September 11-December 3-January-2024 (potential …

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