Betting on contango with OILZ and GASZ

One of my primary goals is to invest where I have an objective edge.   There are many ways to try to get an edge, the two most common being: Value investing—where you try to find companies that are currently undervalued, or likely to  grow their profits faster than expected Technical analysis—where you use patterns or indicators to determine what a security will do next …

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Prediction: Dec 31,2012 S&P 500 close at 1418, up 12.78%

Originally posted 10-Jan-2012 One forecaster has correctly predicted the S&P 500 year-end close within an average of 2% for the last 4 years: Year End Estimated  Actual % Difference 31-Dec-08 879.82 903.25  +2.66% 31-Dec-09 1111.92 1115.1  +0.286% 30-Dec-10 1211.92 1257.88  +3.79% 30-Dec-11 1248.29 1257.60  +0.75% 31-Dec-12 1418.30    ??   This forecast is not from a  human, or a computer program—it’s the year-end closing value …

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iShare and SPDR dividend history

Redirected to dividend overview page If the stock / ETF you are looking for is not an iShare or SPDR ETF then I recommend Dividend Investors website for dividend history information. Tickers supported AAXJ,ACWI,ACWX,AGG,AGZ,AIA,AOA,AOK,AOM,AOR,AXDI,AXEN,AXFN,AXHE,AXID,AXIT, AXMT,AXSL,AXTE,AXUT,BKF,CFT,CIU,CLY,CMF,CSJ,DSI,DVY,ECH,ECNS,EEM,EEMS,EFA,EFG, EFV, EIDO,EIRL,EIS,EMB,EMFN,EMIF,EMMT,ENZL,EPHE,EPOL,EPP,EPU,ERUS,ESR,EUFN, EUSA, EWA,EWC,EWD,EWG,EWH,EWI,EWJ,EWK,EWL,EWM,EWN,EWO,EWP,EWQ,EWS,EWT,EWU,EWW, EWY, EWZ,EWZS,EXI,EZA,EZU,FCHI,FEFN,FLOT,FNIO,FTY,FXI,GBF,GLJ,GTIP,GVI,HDV,HYG, IAI,IAK,IAT,IBB,ICF,ICLN,IDU,IDV,IEF,IEI,IEO,IEV,IEZ,IFAS,IFEU,IFGL,IFNA,IFSM, IGE,IGF,IGM,IGN,IGOV,IGV,IHE,IHF,IHI,IJH,IJJ,IJK,IJR,IJS,IJT,ILF,INDY,IOO, ISHG,ISI,ITA,ITB,ITF,ITIP,IVE,IVV,IVW,IWB,IWC,IWD,IWF,IWL,IWM,IWN,IWO,IWP,IWR, IWS,IWV,IWW,IWX,IWY,IWZ,IXC,IXG,IXJ,IXN,IXP,IYC,IYE,IYF,IYG,IYH,IYJ,IYK,IYM,IYR, IYT,IYW, IYY,IYZ,JKD,JKE,JKF,JKG,JKH,JKI,JKJ,JKK,JKL,JXI,KLD,KXI,LQD,MBB, MCHI,MUAA,MUAB,MUAC,MUAD,MUAE,MUAF,MUB,MXI,NUCL,NY,NYC,NYF,OEF,PFF,REM,REZ,RTL, RXI,SCJ,SCZ, SHV,SHY,SOXX,STIP,SUB,TGR,THD,TIP,TLH,TLT,TOK,TUR,TZD,TZE,TZG,TZI, TZL,TZO,TZV, TZW,TZY,WOOD,WPS,BABS,BIK,BIL,BWX,BWZ,CBND,CWB,CWI,CXA,DGT, DIA, DWX,EBND,EDIV, ELR,EMM,EWX,FEU,FEZ,GAF,GII,GMF,GML,GMM,GNR,GUR,GWL,GWX,GXC, HYMB,IBND,INY,IPD,IPE,IPF,IPK,IPN,IPS,IPU,IPW,IRV,IRY,IST,ITE,ITR,JNK,JPP,JSC, KBE,KCE,KIE,KME, KRE,LAG,LWC,MBG,MDD,MDY,MDYG,MDYV,MTK,PSK,RBL,RWO,RWR,RWX, SCPB,SDY,SHM,SLY, SLYG,SLYV,SPY,SPYG,SPYV,TFI,TLO,TMW,VRD,WIP,XAR,XBI,XES,XHB, XHE,XHS,XLB,XLE,XLF, XLI,XLK,XLP,XLU,XLV,XLY,XME,XOP,XPH,XRT,XSD,XSW,XTL,XTN

Trading options near expiration

Since the CBOE’s introduction of Weekly options, our opportunities to take advantage of expiration day dynamics have quadrupled for many stocks/indexes.  Depending on your position, it is fascinating/horrifying to watch the premium collapse on options in their last couple hours of trading.    Jeff Augen in SFO weekly has written an interesting article (New Approach to Trading on Expiration Day) on some of the underlying mechanisms behind …

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The VIXs of Christmas Past

One of the persistent characteristics of the CBOE‘s VIX® index is the Christmas Effect—the tendency for VIX to drop down to relatively low levels during the Christmas holidays.  The CBOE’s VIX volatility December futures predict this drop for months in advance, and it has come to pass again this year.   I am aware of at least three possible explanations for this: Option market makers and others …

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