Software & Stock Exchanges—Not Skynet Yet

A week after the Nasdaq’s 3-hour shutdown in August 2013 the exchange published Preliminary Findings on the outage.   I’ve extracted some sentences: On August 22, the Securities Information Processor (SIP) received more than 20 connect and disconnect sequences from NYSE Arca, each of which consumed significant resources. Available capacity was further eroded as the SIP received a stream of quotes for inaccurate symbols from NYSE …

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The Modified Davis Method, by Frank Roellinger

First posted September 11, 2013 INTRODUCTION Always interested in alternatives to buy and hold, Vance has generously allowed me to describe my stock market trading method here, and to post its buy and sell signals as they occur in the future.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only, it will never be a recommendation to buy or sell anything.  But I believe that …

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The Volatility Term Structure is Driven by OTM Puts

The CBOE’s VIX® methodology calculates a single theoretically grounded number that quantifies virtually the entire volatility landscape for a specific point in time—pretty cool.  Prices for hundreds of different options with different expiration dates can be involved in the calculation.   This single number is very useful, but obviously, lots of information is discarded in the distillation.  I’ve wondered if the VIX’s compression is hiding some information …

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TVIX’s Last Reverse Split, Number 7—December 2nd, 2019

Update Effective July 2nd, 2020 TVIX stopped trading on national exchanges (press release). The issuer, Credit Suisse (CS) halted share creations effective July 3rd, 2020 but is not terminating the fund. They reserve the right to do so but don’t have to until 2030. TVIX is currently trading on OTC exchanges, e.g., OTCMarkets.com and is currently trading relatively close to its IV price, the theoretic value of …

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Estimated Next VXX Reverse Split (No. 9) —August 12th, 2026

I’m predicting, based on historic decay patterns that VXX’s next reverse split will be 12-August-2026, at a four to one ratio. For a security doomed to decrease in value over time Barclays’ VXX does amazingly well.  Its volume averages over 5 million shares per day and its assets under management run around $250 million, not bad for a product that has averaged a 52% annual …

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